THE GATHERING STORM

As I head to Italy for two weeks, the Democrats in Congress are celebrating their victory and the passage of the historic new health care legislation. However, they seem (at least on the surface) to be missing the adverse deep and heartfelt reaction that is settling in among the American people as they begin to face the social and economic upheaval that is being forced upon them and their children.

My old friend, John Eames, who moved to the United States from England over twenty-five years ago to get away from British socialism and has been a recent contributor to this blog, is deeply frustrated with the economic consequences of Obamacare. I recently visited with my good friend and a great American, Jim Burnett, who is the Republican National Committeeman from Arkansas and is gravely ill in a hospital in Little Rock. Jim told me that Republicans now have an excellent chance to take back the Senate seat in November which is held by the Democrats. My sources also tell me that the “Monday Meetings” in Manhattan (a meeting held each week composed of fiscally conservative Republicans in New York City) are now attended by record numbers easily reaching into the hundreds; and the New York Republican Party is experiencing a rebirth of sorts under strong new leadership. Republicans in Illinois and California sense that they have a real chance to capture the Senate seat once held by Senator Obama and (gasp) even the seat held by the ultraliberal Senator Barbara Boxer. And while Democrats refer to those who attend Tea Party events as “narrow minded…nut jobs” or “wing nuts”, the Tea Parties are organizing. I was recently sent a copy of the recently adopted by-laws of a tea party organization in North Mississippi which affiliates with a national tea party organization. It was very detailed and the passion was evident.

Even more telling to me as an indication of the political unrest in our country is an email that I recently received from a very responsible and successful businessman who, to my knowledge, has never been involved in any organized political activity. He informed me that in order to quell the very deep anger he was experiencing, he wanted not only to contribute financially to defeat the Democrats, but he also wanted to take a leave of absence from his business and become involved, day to day, in one of the congressional races around the country where a Republican had a chance to replace a Democrat. He was willing to do whatever was needed – including licking postage stamps.

This type of far-reaching reaction to the President’s health care legislation is significant to me. I have stated in the past that the Republican Party is basically composed of two groups. The “fiscal Republicans” are primarily concerned with economic issues, and want low taxes, minimal government control, and a free market economy. Then there are the “social Republicans”, who are primarily concerned with social issues; are generally pro-life and want to maintain traditional family values. It has been my experience that when these two basic Republican groups are divided or are not easily working together in a given election contest, Republicans usually lose the election. On the other hand, when fiscal and social Republicans are energized and working together, they are hard to beat.

I believe that as we speak, we are witnessing a gathering storm. There is no doubt that Republicans of all types are angry and frustrated as they watch the U. S. Congress, top-heavy with Democrats, attempt to ram though to passage social and economic measures that are abhorrent to them. Social and fiscal Republicans are suddenly of common purpose, while Democrats in Congress are on the defensive and know that they have passed a flawed health care bill that was opposed by a majority of Americans.

Karl Rove tells us that the Democrats will be disappointed if they believe that passage of the health care reform bill will help them politically, because Obamacare only helps a small number of people in the short run and everyone’s insurance premiums will rise due to new mandates and changes in insurance regulations in 2011 and 2014. I agree. Look for big Republican gains in the Congress after the November, 2010, elections if the fiscal and social Republicans stay together. I will look forward to visiting with you again when I return from Italy in two weeks. Arrivederci!